GLOBAL ECONOMIC EXPANSION SLOWS
The global economy
expanded by 3.6 % in 2007. This represents a modest slowdown
versus the prior year (2006: 3.8 %). Following strong increases
in the first six months of the year, turbulence on international
capital and credit markets resulting from the subprime crisis
in
the USA dampened economic expansion as the year progressed.
In Europe, full year GDP grew 2.9 % (2006: 3.1 %). Growth was primarily a result of the region’s emerging markets which, with around 6 % GDP expansion, again outperformed Western European economies. The latter mainly showed lower GDP growth compared to the prior year. Following a peak in May 2007, consumer confidence in the EU declined steadily over the remainder of the year.
In the USA, economic growth slowed to a level of 2.2 % in 2007 (2006: 2.9 %). This was largely a result of spillover effects from the subprime crisis. US consumer confidence declined consistently from mid-summer to November 2007, reaching its lowest level since late 2005. The main drivers of this decline were rising oil prices, less available credit as a result of the subprime issue, and a weak dollar.
In Asia, most of the region’s economies continued on a strong upswing. Asia’s GDP grew 8.6 % in 2007 (2006: 8.5 %). GDP growth in China was 11.5 %, while Japan’s economy expanded by only 1.9 %. The region’s other emerging markets grew at double-digit rates as a result of flourishing export activity. Consumer confidence in Asia increased, with the exception of Japan.
Latin American economies continued to be positively influenced by the global surge in commodity prices and increased export activity. As a result, GDP growth in the region was 5.0 % in 2007 (2006: 5.2 %). Consumer confidence in the region decreased slightly as a result of an increasing number of consumers struggling with high credit costs.
|
REGIONAL GDP DEVELOPMENT 1) in % |
|
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|
| Source: Allianz | |
| 1) | Real, percentage change versus prior year; 2007 figures are estimated. |
QUARTERLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPMENT
by region
| Q4 2006 |
Q1 2007 |
Q2 2007 |
Q3 2007 |
Q4 2007 |
|
| USA1) | 110.0 | 108.2 | 105.3 | 99.5 | 90.6 |
| Euro Zone2) | (6) | (4) | (2) | (6) | (9) |
| Japan3) | 47.3 | 46.7 | 44.3 | 43.9 | 38.9 |
1) Source: Conference Board.
2) Source: European Commission.
3) Source: Economic and Social Research Institute, Government of Japan.
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENT1)
€ 1 equals
| Average rate 2006 |
Q1 2007 |
Q2 2007 |
Q3 2007 |
Q4 2007 |
Average rate 2007 |
|
| USD | 1.2562 | 1.3318 | 1.3505 | 1.4179 | 1.4721 | 1.3709 |
| GBP |
0.6820 | 0.6798 | 0.6740 | 0.6968 | 0.7334 | 0.6845 |
| JPY | 146.08 | 157.32 | 166.63 | 163.55 | 164.93 | 161.19 |
1) Spot rates at quarter-end.
MIXED DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL SPORTING GOODS INDUSTRY
In 2007, the global sporting goods industry had a mixed regional
development. The European sporting goods industry was
stable,
while the US market remained highly competitive. Asia
and Latin America contributed significantly to our industry’s
growth.
EUROPEAN SPORTING GOODS INDUSTRY STABLE
In Europe,
revenues in the largest sporting goods markets were basically
unchanged
compared to the prior year. Slightly weaker sales
in Western Europe were offset by stronger sales in the region’s
emerging markets. Lower sales in Western Europe primarily
resulted from the non-recurrence of positive effects related
to the 2006 FIFA World Cup™ and a continuously difficult retail
landscape in the UK. Footwear sales remained stable in 2007
compared to the previous year. Apparel sales, however,
decreased
at a low-single-digit rate, largely driven by the non-recurrence
of the 2006 FIFA World Cup™ jersey and replica
volumes.
From a country perspective, growth in Spain and France was offset by promotional market conditions in other countries. The UK market in particular saw continued contraction, with volumes declining. Nevertheless, average prices started to recover over the course of the year. Average selling prices for footwear and apparel in the other countries also stabilized.
On a category basis, the European market continues to be positively
influenced by growth in the outdoor and lifestyle categories.
Running was negatively impacted
by the ongoing trend
towards
sport fusion styles, and the football category declined
due to the non-recurrence of positive effects related to the
2006 FIFA World Cup™. Channel development
was mixed.
General
sporting goods stores were the major
growth channel
on the footwear side, while the volume channel was the only
growth channel on the apparel side.
US SPORTING GOODS INDUSTRY HIGHLY COMPETITIVE
The sporting goods industry in North America continued to be
dominated by the shift towards new sport fusion styles. These
styles gained strongly on the back of significant losses in the
classics and basketball categories.
The footwear market grew
at a mid-single-digit rate in 2007. Sales in the apparel market
were largely unchanged versus the prior year. Average selling
prices increased marginally across the industry. Sport fusion and
vulcanized footwear styles increased markedly. The region’s
retail environment continued to be very challenging, driven by
price competition in the athletic specialty channel. Retail
growth was strongest in the sporting goods and family footwear
channels.
ASIAN SPORTING GOODS MARKET FLOURISHES
In Asia, the
sporting goods sector grew at a high-single-digit rate in 2007.
Stagnation in Japan was more than compensated by strong
growth in the region’s emerging markets, in particular China.
In these markets, footwear sales grew at a double-digit rate
with running, basketball
and training being the main contributors.
Apparel sales also increased at a double-digit rate,
mainly due to growth in the training category. Average selling
prices
were stable throughout the region.
LATIN AMERICAN SPORTING GOODS MARKET INCREASES
In Latin America, the sporting goods industry developed in
line with the overall economy and grew at a mid-single-digit
rate compared to the prior year. Both apparel and footwear
sales increased modestly in 2007 compared to the previous
year, reflecting higher
consumer spending in the region.
Average
selling prices increased in Argentina and Venezuela
due to high inflation rates and were stable in the region’s other
countries.
ADIDAS GROUP OUTPACES INDUSTRY AND OVERALL
ECONOMIC GROWTH
In 2007, adidas Group revenues grew
faster than both the economy and the sporting goods industry
in all regions, with the exception of North America. From
a macroeconomic perspective, the two most important
indicators
of how conducive a region’s economic development
is to our business are GDP growth and consumer confidence.
Performance in the sporting goods industry, however, is
often more influenced by product category trends, development
of key retail partners as well as pricing and volume
trends in the sector.